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Saturday 4 September 2010 |
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Research Centre |
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Weekly Market Focus
Other Publications
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Over the past month, ten year yields have generally traded in a 1.2-1.3% range. However, the recent pricing action suggests growing pressure for yields to break out in an upward direction. Economic fundamentals are also pointing towards higher yields. We look for ten year yields to rise to 1.5% in the comings months before reaching 1.7% in H1 2006.
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WEEKLY ECONOMCIC DIARY 24TH - 27TH MAY
Other Publications
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| WEEKLY ECONOMCIC DIARY 24TH - 27TH MAY
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EXCHANGE RATE MONTHLY MAY - JUNE 2005
Exchange Rate Monthly
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| The dollar’s recovery has gained momentum on fresh evidence that the US economy is still growing at a solid pace. Data have also shown some early signs of an improvement in structural imbalances. Expectations of higher US rates should provide underlying support to the dollar over the short-term. However, we have yet to be convinced that what we are currently seeing represents a fundamental change in direction. Sterling has come under pressure against both the dollar and euro in response to weaker UK economic data. Sentiment looks set to remain poor as markets debate the direction of the next move in official rates.
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WEEKLY ECONOMIC DIARY 16TH - 20TH MAY 2005
Other Publications
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| WEEKLY ECONOMIC DIARY 16TH - 20TH MAY 2005
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WEEKLY ECONOMIC DIARY 9TH - 13TH MAY 2005
Other Publications
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| WEEKLY ECONOMIC DIARY 9TH - 13TH MAY 2005
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WEEKLY ECONOMIC DIARY 25th - 29th April 2005
Other Publications
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| WEEKLY ECONOMIC DIARY 25th - 29th April 2005
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FIXED INCOME MONTHLY MONITOR APRIL - MAY 2005
Fixed Income Monthly Monitor
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| The recent slowdown in the US economy has fuelled a strong rally in bonds over the past month. However, growth should pick up again over the summer, helped by lower oil prices, declining longer term interest rates and with policy still accommodative. The Treasury market is very vulnerable to any signs of renewed economic strength, as it would cement expectations of rates rising to 4% over the next year. Thus, we look for bond yields to back up again. In the eurozone, growth continues to disappoint. We don’t believe that the ECB will be in a position to hike rates until year end at the earliest. Hence, any setback for the eurozone bond market is likely to be modest.
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WEEKLY DIARY 18TH - 22ND APRIL 2005
Other Publications
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| WEEKLY DIARY 18TH - 22ND APRIL 2005
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WEEKLY ECONOMIC DIARY 11TH - 15TH APRIL 2005
Other Publications
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| WEEKLY ECONOMIC DIARY 11TH - 15TH APRIL 2005
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quarterly update april 2005
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
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| AIB anticipates a very favourable outlook for the Irish economy over 2005 and 2006. GDP is expected to grow by 6% in real terms in 2005, with even faster growth of 6.5% forecast for 2006. This growth will be broad based with a strong contribution coming from both domestic demand and net exports. Economic growth in excess of 5% is somewhat above Ireland’s longer term potential but in the short term there is scope for outperformance in light of our exceptionally strong growth in employment. Meanwhile, inflation is expected to remain moderate over the forecast period.
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HOUSING UPDATE APRIL 2005
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
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| The Irish housing market has been supported by sustained job creation and by increased personal wealth - manifesting itself through the purchase of second homes and rental property as an investment. Any significant downturn in either sector would obviously pose a threat to the overall housing market. However, house price inflation is expected to moderate further and by end 2005 could be down to 5% or below. Prices may then rise by less than 3% in 2006. With the threat of a price blowout diminishing, continuing low interest rates and a robust labour market, AIB see little risk of a market crash and continue to believe that the housing market will achieve a soft landing.
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WEEKLY ECONOMIC DIARY 4TH - 8TH APRIL 2005
Other Publications
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| WEEKLY ECONOMIC DIARY 4TH - 8TH APRIL 2005
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WEEKLY ECONOMIC DIARY 28TH MARCH - 1 APRIL 2005
Other Publications
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| WEEKLY ECONOMIC DIARY 28TH MARCH - 1 APRIL 2005
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WEEKLY ECONOMIC DIARY 28TH MARCH - 1 APRIL 2005
Other Publications
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| WEEKLY ECONOMIC DIARY 28TH MARCH - 1 APRIL 2005
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WEEKLY ECONOMIC DIARY 21ST-25TH MARCH 2005
Other Publications
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| WEEKLY ECONOMIC DIARY 21ST-25TH MARCH 2005
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WEEKLY ECONOMIC DIARY 14TH - 18TH MARCH 2005
Other Publications
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| WEEKLY ECONOMIC DIARY 14TH - 18TH MARCH 2005
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Economic Diary Monday 7th March - Friday 11th March
Other Publications
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| Key Data and Events for the Week
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Economic Diary 28th February - 4th March
Other Publications
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| Key Economic Releases and Events for Week
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EXCHANGE RATE MONTHLY FEBRUARY - MARCH 2005
Exchange Rate Monthly
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| EXCHANGE RATE MONTHLY FEBRUARY - MARCH 2005
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WEEKLY ECONOMIC DIARY 21ST - 25TH FEBRUARY 2005
Other Publications
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| WEEKLY ECONOMIC DIARY 21ST - 25TH FEBRUARY 2005
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WEEKLY ECONOMIC DIARY 7TH - 11TH FEBRUARY 2005
Other Publications
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| WEEKLY ECONOMIC DIARY 7TH - 11TH FEBRUARY 2005
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Weekly Economic Diary 31st January - 4th February 2005
Other Publications
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| Weekly Economic Diary 31st January - 4th February 2005
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Weekly Diary - 24th -28th January 2005
Other Publications
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| Weekly Diary - 24th -28th January 2005
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EXCHANGE RATE MONTHLY JANUARY FEBRUARY 2005
Exchange Rate Monthly
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| EXCHANGE RATE MONTHLY JANUARY FEBRUARY 2005
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WEEKLY ECONOMIC DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 17th - 21st January 2005
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weekly economic diary 20th Decemebr 2004 - January 7th 2005
Other Publications
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| Weekly Ecomic Diary
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 13-17 December 2004
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BUDGET 2005
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
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| Overview * EBR projected to rise to €3bn in 2005 * General Government deficit of €1.2bn next year or 0.8% of GDP * EBR target may be undershot * A stimulatory budget * Good income boost for taxpayers * Solid growth and low inflation forecast for 2005 * Modest net bond issuance next year *
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events 29th November 2004 - 3rd December 2004
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WEEKLY ECONOMIC DIARY 22ND NOVEMBER - 26TH NOVEMBER 2004
Other Publications
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| WEEKLY ECONOMIC DIARY 22ND NOVEMBER - 26TH NOVEMBER 2004
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WEEKLY ECONOMIC DIARY 1ST - 5TH NOVEMBER 2004
Other Publications
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| Weekly Economic Diary 1st - 5th November 2004
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Weekly Economic Diary 25th October - 29th October 2004
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EXCHANGE RATE MONTHLY - OCTOBER/NOVEMBER 2004
Exchange Rate Monthly
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| We retain our negative bias towards the US dollar as we head into a period of increased political uncertainty with the US Presidential election on 2 November. A more sustained break above $1.25 is on the cards for the rest of the year.
A support for the dollar is the lack of attractive major currency alternatives. There are signs that the ECB is increasingly worried about the impact of sustained high oil prices on the euro area's export driven expansion. This could put the ECB on hold until mid-2005.
Weak economic and housing market data have taken their toll on sterling. The UK currency could continue to suffer versus the euro, moving towards £0.71 in the short term, but should gain against the weakening dollar.
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WEEKLY ECONOMIC DIARY 18TH - 22ND OCTOBER 2004
Other Publications
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| WEEKLY ECONOMIC DIARY 18TH - 22ND OCTOBER 2004
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THE IRISH ECONOMY OCTOBER 2004
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
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| The Irish economy has strengthened over the past year with real GDP growth hitting 5.1% in Q4 2003 and again in H1 2004. The pick up in activity has been led by a rebound in business investment and exports. The prospects for the economy remain favourable with sound domestic fundamentals and improved global economic conditions. We expect real GDP and GNP to rise by 5.5% and 5.0%, respectively, in both 2004 and 2005.
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THE IRISH HOUSING MARKET OCTOBER 2004
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
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| SOFT LANDING ACHIEVABLE * There are undoubtedly risks to the Irish housing market with price inflation still relatively high, a surge in supply and substantial reliance on the investment market. However, we believe that comfortable affordability levels, continuing low interest rates and the improved economic climate, particularly a robust labour market, together with untapped demand, should cushion the market, allowing it to achieve a soft landing.
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weekly economic diary
Other Publications
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| Weekly Economic Diary 27th September - 1st October 2004
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| SCHEDULE OF ECONOMIC RELEASES AND KEY MARKET EVENTS FOR 13TH - 24TH SEPTEMBER 2004
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EXCHANGE RATE MONTHLY SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2004
Exchange Rate Monthly
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| * The outlook for the dollar remains very uncertain, though
it is expected to trade within established ranges ahead of
the Presidential election in November. Thereafter, the
outlook is more uncertain with a break above $1.25 a
strong possibility.
* The dollar will find some support from further Fed interest
rate hikes and from the lack of attractive alternative
currencies for investors. However, the US fiscal and
particularly the external account deficits pose material
threats to the dollar.
* Sterling is expected to remain under pressure versus the
dollar and euro in the near term but falls should be limited
from here.
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Fixed Income Monthly Monitor September 2004
Fixed Income Monthly Monitor
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| Many central banks have been busy hiking interest rates as they seek to withdraw some of the considerable monetary stimulus that has been injected into the world economy in recent years. They have not been deflected from this path by weakening activity. Central banks believe that the economic slowdown will prove a temporary occurrence and activity will soon pick up again. The short ends of bond markets have not discounted a lot of policy tightening. Thus, they are quite vulnerable if central banks stick to their present tightening path. Yield curves remain relatively steep, offering some protection to longer dated bonds. However, this part of the curve is also sensitive to any deterioration in interest rate expectations. The economic outlook is uncertain. Our best guess is that there will be a modest rise in yields in Q4 2004 on signs of a pick up in global economic activity.
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| SCHEDULE OF ECONOMIC RELEASES AND KEY MARKET EVENTS FOR 13TH - 17TH SEPTEMBER 2004
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events 6-10 September 2004
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 30th August - 3rd September
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 23-27 August 2004
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EXCHANGE RATE MONTHLY AUGUST/SEPTEMBER 2004
Discontinued - See Exchange Rate Monthly
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| As usual, the US Treasury market has been setting the direction for most other bond markets. US yields have fallen significantly in recent weeks, on signs of a slowdown in growth during Q2 and expectations that Fed rates will rise at just a gradual pace. We expect that the economy will pick up momentum again during the second half of the year. We also expect to see a continuation of the build up of inflationary pressures. Thus, while the Fed is likely to deliver another modest 0.25% rate hike in August, it could turn more aggressive on policy tightening post the November elections. Hence, we expect upward pressure to re-emerge on bond yields through the autumn and winter.
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EXCHANGE RATE MONTHLY AUGUST/SEPTEMBER 2004
Exchange Rate Monthly
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| The US dollar is under pressure from high crude oil prices, the slowdown in US economic growth and employment and questions about the extent to which the Fed will raise interest rates again in 2004. Markets now wait for the August US non-farm payrolls report on 3 September for direction. We expect the dollar to trade within the top half of a $1.20-1.25 range versus the euro in the short term. A brake above $1.25 could occur on further jobs weakness in September. Sterling is drifting versus the euro and some further sterling softness is likely, towards £0.68 or higher.
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 16th - 20th August 2004
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HARD JOB FOR THE FED
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 9th August to 13th August 2004
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 2nd - 6th August
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 19th - 23rd July
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FIXED INCOME MONTHLY MONITOR JULY/AUGUST 2004
Fixed Income Monthly Monitor
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| As usual, the US Treasury market has been setting the direction for most other bond markets. US yields have fallen significantly in recent weeks, on signs of a slowdown in growth during Q2 and expectations that Fed rates will rise at just a gradual pace. We expect that the economy will pick up momentum again during the second half of the year. We also expect to see a continuation of the build up of inflationary pressures. Thus, while the Fed is likely to deliver another modest 0.25% rate hike in August, it could turn more aggressive on policy tightening post the November elections. Hence, we expect upward pressure to re-emerge on bond yields through the autumn and winter.
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 12 - 16 July
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IRISH ECONOMIC UPDATE - JULY 2004
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
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| The latest data show that the Irish economy has moved on to a firm growth path with GDP likely to increase by 5.5% in 2004 and 6% in 2005. Employment is now rising by close to 3% yoy with the unemployment rate low at around 4.5%. Inflation has fallen below eurozone levels. Meanwhile, the general government budget is set to remain broadly in balance this year. This is pretty close to economic nirvana.
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Weekly Economic Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 5th - 9th July 2004
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EXCHANGE RATE MONTHLY JUNE/JULY 2004
Other Publications
Exchange Rate Monthly
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| The dollar's short term outlook is dependent on Fed policy at the end of the month and the success of the handover of sovereignty in Iraq, also at end month. We expect the EUR/USD to remain within $1.18-1.23 over the summer.
Sterling is well supported by a sound economy and relatively high interest rates. However, domestic political concerns and Iraq leave the currency vulnerable. A sustained break below £0.66 versus the euro hangs in the balance.
The Fed is forecast to hike official US interest rates by 0.25% at end June, marking a turning point in policy.
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 21-25 June
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 7th June - 11th June
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US YIELDS TO RISE DESPITE UNCERTAINTIES
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 31st May - 4th June
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 17-21 May
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 10th - 14th May 2004
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 3-7 May
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EU ACCESSION
Euro Economy & Financial Markets
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| Ahead of EU enlargement on 1 May, this presentation outlines the economies of the 10 accession countries, their prospects forentry into the single currency and recent FX trends.
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 26-30 April
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FIXED INCOME MONTHLY MONITOR APRIL 2004
Fixed Income Monthly Monitor
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| The ECB is likely to stay on hold this year but a summer rate cut cannot be ruled out. Further rate hikes are anticipated in the UK. In the US, employment is picking up, the economy is growing strongly and inflation is accelerating. Thus, we expect the Fed to start hiking rates in August. By end year, the funds rate is expected to have risen to 2.25%. Hence, we see further upward pressure on global bond yields, with ten year Treasury yields hitting 5% by end 2004.
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases an key market events for 19 - 23 April
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THE IRISH ECONOMY APRIL 2004
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
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| The Irish economy is moving back onto a firmer footing with real GDP forecast to grow by at least 4% this year and by 5% in 2005 * Economic growth will be more broadly based * Sizeable growth in domestic demand and exports, the latter aided by the robust global economic recovery* The labour market is resilient * CPI inflation will average 1.9% in 2004 and 2.7% in 2005 * The Irish public finances are in good shape * The annual rate of increase in house prices should decelerate to around 7% by end year.
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THE IRISH HOUSING MARKET APRIL 2004
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
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| The Irish housing market exhibits none of the signs of a bubble about to burst * Housing supply, though, is at very high levels which should exert downward pressure on house prices * House price inflation could slow to around 7% by end year * While the market remains vulnerable to any withdrawal by investors it is well underpinned on the demand side and should be able to move to more moderate and sustainable levels in terms of both supply levels and prices.
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economics releases and key market events for 12 - 19 April
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Irish Exchequer Returns March 2004
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
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| The Irish Exchequer recorded a budget surplus of €272m in the first three months of the year. This compares with a deficit of €205m in the same period of 2003
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 5-9 April
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 29 Mar- 2 April
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 22-26 March 2004
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Fixed Income Monthly (March 2004)
Fixed Income Monthly Monitor
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| The unexpected weakness of payroll data means that the Fed is unlikely to hike rates until near the end of the year. We still expect payrolls to pick up strength over the course of 2004. In these circumstances, upward pressure on bond yields is likely to re-emerge as the year progresses.
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Exchange Rate Monthly (March 2004)
Exchange Rate Monthly
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| Volatility on forex markets remains exceptionally high but the dollar is showing resilience despite persistent weakness in the US labour market ....The recent actions by the BoJ have had a marked influence on forex levels. There is much uncertainty regarding its next move but fears of intervention could still be a factor in preventing the euro from re-establishing an uptrend.
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Irish Inflation Rate Eases Further To 1.7%
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
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| The deceleration in inflation evident during 2003 continued in the first two months of 2004. The headline CPI rate edged down to 1.7% in February from 1.8% in January and 1.9% in December 2003.
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Irish Inflation Rate Eases Further
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
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| The deceleration in inflation evident during 2003 continued in the first two months of 2004. The headline CPI rate edged down to 1.7% in February from 1.8% in January and 1.9% in December 2003.
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 15-19 March 2004
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 8-12 March 2004
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 1-5 March 2004
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 23-27 February
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Fixed Income Monthly Monitor (Feb 2004)
Fixed Income Monthly Monitor
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| The US bond market has performed well recently, helped by the continuing very low level of official interest rates. Our view remains that payroll growth will strengthen in the coming months as the economy continues to grow robustly. We expect that this will trigger Fed tightening in H2 2004 of the order of 125bps, well above consensus forecasts. Hence, we see ten year US yields rising from 4% at present to 5% by end 2004. Other bond markets can be expected to follow suit.
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Exchange Rate Monthly (Feb 2004)
Exchange Rate Monthly
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| Dollar weakness remains the chief focus as interest rate differentials drive forex levels post February's G7 meeting. Markets have turned more cautious on the euro following comments from eurozone officials with higher yielders like sterling and the Aussie dollar outperforming
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Consumer Price Index - January 2004
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
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| The deceleration in inflation, which has been evident since early 2003, continued in the first month of 2004. The headline CPI rate edged down to 1.8% from 1.9% in December.
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 16-20 February
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 9-13 February
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 2-6 February
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events
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Fixed Income Monthly Monitor
Fixed Income Monthly Monitor
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| We expect US employment data to have a major bearing on US interest rate policy over 2004. Leading US employment indicators point to a marked strengthening of payrolls growth in the coming months. We expect this will see the Fed tighten policy from the summer onwards. We look for the funds rate to rise from 1% to 2.25% by end year, well above consensus forecasts. We do not expect the ECB to tighten rates until Q4. Even then tightening should be modest.
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Fixed Income Monthly Monitor
Other Publications
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| We expect US employment data to have a major bearing on US interest rate policy over 2004. Leading US employment indicators point to a marked strengthening of payrolls growth in the coming months. We expect this will see the Fed tighten policy from the summer onwards. We look for the funds rate to rise from 1% to 2.25% by end year, well above consensus forecasts. We do not expect the ECB to tighten rates until Q4. Even then tightening should be modest.
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Exchange Rate Monthly
Exchange Rate Monthly
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| The outlook for the dollar continues to dominate fx markets, which we expect to remain volatile over 2004. Currently pressurised by comments from eurozone officials, we see scope for a technical correction in the euro to the $1.20 level and possibly even below. However, downside pressures still exist for the USD and the euro could still have to bear the brunt of a longer-term dollar adjustment.
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 19-23 January
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 12-16 Janaury
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 5-9 January
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 22 Dec 2003 - 2 Jan 2004
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 15-19 December 2003
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 8-12 December 2003
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Budget 2004
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
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| Irish Finance Minister Charlie McCreevy delivered a broadly neutral budget yesterday. In terms of the main features, the public finances stand in good shape.
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 1-5 December 2003
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of Economic Releases and Key Market Events for 24 - 28 November
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 17 - 21 November
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 10-14 November
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 3-7 November 2003
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 20-24 October
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 13-17 October
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Irish Inflation Falls to 2.9% in September
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
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| The annual rate of Irish inflation decelerated to 2.9% in September from 3.2% in August. There were clear signs of an easing in inflation pressures right across the board.
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 6-10 October
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 29 Sept - 3 Oct 2003
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 22-26 September
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Irish Economy Review & Outlook
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
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| Data published for the first half of the year paint a mixed picture of the Irish economy. There are some signs though of a strengthening of activity in line with recent trends in most other economies.
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Irish Economy Review and Outlook
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
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| Data published for the first half of the year paint a mixed picture of the Irish economy. There are some signs though of a strengthening of activity in line with recent trends in most other economies.
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 15-19 September 2003
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Consumer Price Index - August 2003
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
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| The headline CPI rose by 0.7% in August, largely reflecting the ending of the summer sales. As a result, the annual inflation rate edged higher to 3.2% from 3.1% previously.
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 8-12 September 2003
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 1-4 September 2003
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 25-29 August 2003
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 18-22 August
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 11-15 August
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Irish CPI - July 2003
Other Publications
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| Irish inflation fell to 3.1% in July from 3.5% in June. The impact of the summer sales as well as lower interest rates contributed to the deceleration.
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 04-08 August
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 28 July - 01 August 2003
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 21 - 25 July 2003
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events 14-18 July
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Irish Inflation Rate Falls Again In June
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
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| Inflation fell for the fourth consecutive month in June. Prices were flat on the month, with the year-on-year rate at 3.5%, down from 3.7% in May.
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 7-11 July 2003
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US Payrolls Data Disappoint
US Economy & Financial Markets
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| The US employment situation was weaker than expected in June. Payrolls declined by 30,000 compared to our anticipated drop of just 7,000. Furthermore, the numbers were revised down substantially for the two previous months
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 30 June- 4 July
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| |
Obstacles Still Ahead for Sterling Entry into EMU
UK Economy & Financial Markets
|
| On 9 June, UK Chancellor Gordon Brown delivered his long-awaited assessment of the UK’s requirements for entry into EMU The Chancellor was positive about the long-run benefits of membership of the single currency but, in the short-term, felt that the UK was not ready to join.
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 16-20 June
|
| |
Irish Inflation Rate Falls Sharply in May
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
|
| Irish inflation data for May came in much better than expected. Overall, prices fell 0.1% in May with the annual inflation rate decelerating to 3.7% from 4.3% in April.
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| |
Still Weak, But Better Than Expected
Other Publications
|
| May’s decline of 17,000 in the US non-farm payroll was smaller than expected. The labour market was supported by growth in service producing industries, such as professional services, and construction.
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| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 9-13 June 2003
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| |
Weekly Economics Dairy
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 2-6 June 2003
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| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 26-30 May
|
| |
Dollar Set for Further Declines
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| The trend has moved more decisively against the US dollar. The risk of further declines has intensified.
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| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 12-16 May 2003
|
| |
Consumer Price Index - April 2003
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
|
| Irish prices increased by 0.3% over the month of April. This compares with an increase of 0.9% in April of last year. As a result the annual inflation rate fell from 4.9% to 4.3%.
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| |
Payrolls Report No Support for Dollar
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| US employment losses continued in April with payrolls falling by 48,000. Job losses in March were revised up to 124,000 from 108,000. Manufacturing continues to shed jobs, experiencing its largest job loss in 15 months.
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| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of market releases and key market events for 5-9 May 2003
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| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 28 April-2 May
|
| |
US Growth Stays Below Trend
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| The US economy grew by an annualised 1.6% in the first quarter of the year. This was below expectations and only marginally better than the Q4’s 1.4% growth rate.
|
| |
UK Growth Disappoints in Q1
UK Economy & Financial Markets
|
| The UK economy grew by just 0.2% in the first three months of 2002. This was below expectations and continued the subdued picture evident in Q4 2002 when growth was 0.4%.
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| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 21-25 April
|
| |
Irish Inflation Falls in March
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
|
| The annual rate of inflation fell to 4.9% in March, down from 5.1% in February. While the headline inflation rate will trend lower over the year a number of underlying pressures remain
|
| |
UK Budget 2003 Assessment
UK Economy & Financial Markets
|
| As expected the Chancellor has revised down his growth forecast for 2003 from the growth rate contained in November’s pre-budget report. At the same time he has raised his forecasts for RPIX at end 2003.
|
| |
UK Budget 2003 Assessment
UK Economy & Financial Markets
|
| As expected the Chancellor has revised down his growth forecast for 2003 from the growth rate contained in November’s pre-budget report. However, he left the forecast for 2004 unchanged. At the same time he has raised his forecasts for RPIX at end 2003.
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| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 24-28 March
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 24-28 March
|
| |
Irish Consumer Price Index - February 2003
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
|
| Irish inflation moved back above 5.0% in February, underpinning concerns about price pressures as the economy slows
|
| |
UK Economy on Borrowed Time ?
UK Economy & Financial Markets
|
| During the current slowdown in the global economy the UK has been one of the bright spots. This outperformance has been mainly due to the strength of consumer demand. However, in January the volume of retail sales fell 1.0%. On a year-on-year basis sales were up 4.2%, compared to 6.0% in December. This decline was well in excess of market expectations.
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| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 24-28 February
|
| |
Irish Inflation Falls to 4.8%
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
|
| Prices fell 0.4% in Janaury and as a result he annual infaltion rate dropped to 4.8% from 5.0%. This was much better than expected.
|
| |
German Economy Faces Long Term Adjustment
Euro Economy & Financial Markets
|
| There is an underlying assumption that if and when a war with Iraq is concluded successsfully there will be a turnaround in financial market sentiment and economic performance. This is by no means guaranteed
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 17-21 February
|
| |
Focus on US Capital Flows
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
|
The latest monthly portfolio data from the US Treasury indicate that foreigners showed a strong preference for US fixed income products in November. The total net demand for assets was measured at $66.0bn, up from $42.30bn in the previous month.
|
| |
Rise in Payroll Fails to Inspire Dollar
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| US employment numbers increased by 143,000 in January, well above the consensus forecast and going some way towards offsetting the loss of 156,000 in December. However, despite the optimistic headline number the labour market remains very weak
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 10-14 February 2003
|
| |
US Growth Stays Subdued and Uneven
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| Continuing 2002’s uneven pattern, US Q4 GDP growth came in at a disappointing 0.7% (saar). In the third quarter the economy had grown by 4.0% (saar). This brings the growth rate for the year as a whole to 2.4%, well below the economy’s potential growth rate of 3.5%.
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| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 3-7 February 2003
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 27- 31 January 2003
|
| |
UK Economy to Outperform in 2003
UK Economy & Financial Markets
|
| In the final quarter of 2002 the UK economy expanded by a modest 0.4 per cent, compared with 0.9 per cent in the previous quarter. The annual rate of growth was 2.2 per cent. Growth for the calendar year 2002 as a whole is estimated as 1.7 per cent over 2001. This follows growth of 2.0 per cent for 2001.
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| |
Irish inflation rises to 5.0%
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
|
| Irish prices rose 0.7% in December 2002, and as a result, the annual inflation rate rose to 5.0% from 4.8% in November. The acceleration in the headline inflation rate reflects to a large extent the impact of Budget 2003
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 20-24 Janaury 2003
|
| |
Payrolls Report Not Good News for Dollar
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| The US payroll employment declined by 101,000 in December; consensus estimates called for an increase of 22,000. The November data were revised down to a loss of 88,000, from 40,000.
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| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for week commencing 13 Janaury 2003
|
| |
Economic Diary for week commencing 6 January 2003
Other Publications
|
| Diary of key economic events this week.
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of data releases and key market events for the two week period to 3 January 2003.
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 16-20 December
|
| |
Euro Rallies on US Uncertainty
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| The euro has rallied over 2% against the dollar over the last two weeks, taking it a three year high of $1.0239. This brings its gains in the year to date to 14.1%. Breaking through key chart levels around $1.0210, the currency also rallied to five month highs against sterling and a nine month high against the Swiss franc.
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| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 9-13 December
|
| |
Weak Labour Market to Weigh on Dollar
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| The US labour market performed much more poorly than expected in November. Net employment declined by 40,000, instead of rising by an expected 38,000. The jobless rate rose to 6.0%, matching the cyclical high reached earlier this year in April.
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| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 2-6 Dec 2002
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 25-29 November
|
| |
Chief Economist Briefing & November 2002
Other Publications
|
| Latest Briefing from the Chief Economist
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 18-22 November 2002
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 11-15 November 2002
|
| |
Weekly Diary For Week commencing 28 October
Other Publications
|
| The focus this week is on key US statistics.
|
| |
Chief Economist Briefing
Other Publications
|
| This is the third issue of Chief Economist Briefing. In it, I look at the chances of UK entry to the euro and impact of SSIA's.
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 21-25 OCtober 2002
|
| |
Chief Economist Briefing
Other Publications
|
| This is the second issue of Chief Economist Briefing in which I look at the Nice Treaty referendum, The ECB and Irish inflation.
|
| |
Irish Inflation Remains High
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
|
| Irish inflation rose 0.5% in September, and 4.5% y-on-y. Service infaltion levels remain high and there is little prospect of a fall below 4.0% over the coming months.
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 14-18 September 2002
|
| |
Chief Economist Briefing
Other Publications
|
| This is a new service from AIB Corporate and Commercial Treasury in which the Chief Economist gives his views.
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 7-11 October
|
| |
Dollar Up on Payrolls Report
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| US employment declined by 43,000 in September, well below consensus estimates for a 5,000 rise. This marked the first decline in the payroll since April.
|
| |
Economic Diary
Other Publications
|
| Economic events for the week commencing 30 September 2002.
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| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 23-27 September
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 16-20 September
|
| |
US Payrolls Report Dampens Talk of Lower Rates
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| August’s non farm payrolls report, which showed the work force increasing by 39,000 was well received by the markets. The dollar jumped over half a cent against the euro on the release, with stocks also rallying.
|
| |
Weekly Econoimc Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 09-13 September
|
| |
Weekly Economics Dairy
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 2 - 6 Septemeber
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 19-23 August
|
| |
Dollar on Emotional Roller Coaster
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| The failure of the Fed to provide a boost to the US economy by cutting interest rates has seen some of the bearish sentiment towards the dollar return. Speculation that the Fed could cut rates had helped to turnaround a wave of negative sentiment against the US currency.
|
| |
US Economic Risks Are Rising
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| With speculation of a new round of rate cuts in the US running high, the main focus of the week will be Tuesday’s FOMC meeting. Clearly the outlook for the US economy has deteriorated since the Fed’s last meeting in late June and Chairman Alan Greenspan’s subsequent address to Congress.
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| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of Economic Releases and Key Market Events for 12 - 16 August
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 29 July-2 August
|
| |
UK Economy Rebounds in Q2
UK Economy & Financial Markets
|
| The UK economy expanded by 0.9% in the second quarter of the year. This was in line with expectations and showed a considerable improvement on the two previous quarter’s performance.
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 22-26 July
|
| |
Low Inflation to Keep BoE Inactive
UK Economy & Financial Markets
|
| The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 8-1 to leave interest rates at 4.0 per cent for the eighth month running in July. The central bank’s Deputy Governor, Mervyn King, was again alone in calling for higher interest rates.
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| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 15-19 July 2002
|
| |
Steady Rates in Europe and UK
Euro Economy & Financial Markets
|
| The governing councils of the ECB and the Bank of England both elected to leave interest rates unchanged at their respective policy meetings this week.
|
| |
US Labour Market Remains Weak
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| Reflecting the mid-year lull in the US economy, the labor market remained weak in June. As expected, the unemployment rate rose to 5.9% from 5.8% in May.
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 1-5 July
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 1-5 July
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 24-28 June
|
| |
WEEKLY DIARY FOR WEEK COMMENCING 10 JUNE
Other Publications
|
| Diary of key events and statistics due this week
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 3 - 7 June
|
| |
Dollar Alternatives Don’t Inspire
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| Over the past month the dollar has depreciated against all the other main currencies, falling to multi-month troughs against the euro, yen and sterling. As a result, the dollar’s trade weighted index has fallen by some 3%.
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key makret events for 20th - 24th May
|
| |
Irish Consumer Price Index - April 2002
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
|
| Prices rose by 0.9% in April leaving the annual rate unchanged from March at 4.8%. There was a similar rise in both the core (ex mortgages) and HICP indices.
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for the week 13th -17th May
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for the week 6th - 10th May
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 29 April - 3 May
|
| |
Dollar Under Pressure Against Majors
Other Publications
|
| The dollar came under strong selling pressure against other major currencies over the week, falling to its lowest level since early January against the euro and sterling, hitting a multi-week low against the yen and a year low against the Swiss franc
|
| |
UK Economy Disappoints in Q1
UK Economy & Financial Markets
|
| The UK economy expanded by just 0.1% in the first three months of the year. This was below expectations for a 0.4% rise and showed little improvement from Q4’s flat performance.
|
| |
US Economy Expands by Robust 5.8%
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| The advance estimate of first quarter GDP was better than forecast with the headline growth rate of 5.8% above the consensus forecast of 5.0%. This robust growth rate is up from a 1.7% rate in the fourth quarter and was the fastest growth since Q4 1999.
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 15-19 April 2002
|
| |
Is UK Manufacturing Off Life Support
UK Economy & Financial Markets
|
| The UK manufacturing industry appears poised to rebound. The recent PMI report is clear testimony to manufacturing's improved prospects, and points to further progress in the months ahead. The index has risen 7 point from its post September 11 trough of 42.9. In its most recent monthly trends survey the CBI recorded the biggest rise in output optimism (over the previous three months) on record.
|
| |
UK Budget 2002...The Tax Man Cometh
UK Economy & Financial Markets
|
| Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown delivers his sixth annual budget to the House of Commons on Wednesday, April 17 at 14.30 GMT. The key focus is how much are taxes going to rise with both the Chancellor and the Prime Minister Tony Blair strongly hinted that revenue will have to rise to in order to pay for increased spending on the National Health Service.
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| |
Irish Inflation.......Service Included !
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
|
|
The decline in Irish CPI inflation during 2001 masked the fact that there was continuing strong upward pressure on prices last year. If one excludes changes in mortgage rates and indirect taxes, one finds that the underlying level of inflation remained broadly unchanged during 2001 at around 5%.
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| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 1 April - 5 April
|
| |
US Q4 GDP Revised Up to 1.7%
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| The U.S. economy grew by even more than first estimated in the final three months of last year. On an annualised basis, GDP growth was revised upwards from 1.4% to 1.7%.
|
| |
Confidence in US Economy Surges
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| With the brief recession likely over at this stage, US consumer confidence surged in March, jumping by a much higher than expected 15 points to 110.2. This was the biggest monthly increase in 25 years.
|
| |
BoE In No Hurry to Hike Rates
UK Economy & Financial Markets
|
| The Bank of England has left interest rates unchanged at 4.0% since November of last year. In easing monetary policy in 2001 the BoE’s main objective was to protect the domestic economy from the global downturn. In this regard, data released over the last month indicate that the recovery in the global economy is gaining momentum.
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of Economic Releases and Key Market Events for 25 - 29 March 2002
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 18 - 22 March 2002
|
| |
Weekly Economics Dairy
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 18-22 March
|
| |
Irish Inflation Up 0.7% in February
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
|
| The ending of the winter sales is the main feature of February CPI data and, as a result, the headline CPI rate rose by 0.7%. This compares to a 0.9% increase in February 2001. Thus, the annual rate decelerated from 4.9% to 4.7%. The core (i.e. ex-mortgages) and HICP indices rose by 0.7% and 0.6% respectively. As a result, the annual core rate fell from 5.5% to 5.2%, with the HICP rate decelerating from 5.2% to 4.9%.
|
| |
US Industrial Production Up 0.4%
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| This week provided even more evidence that the US economy is in recovery. In February, industrial production registered its biggest bounce since June 2000, increasing by 0.4% compared with forecasts for a 0.3% rise.
|
| |
US Industrial Production Up 0.4%
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| This week provided even more evidence that the US economy is in recovery. In February, industrial production registered its biggest bounce since June 2000, increasing by 0.4% compared with forecasts for a 0.3% rise.
|
| |
US Payroll Shows Evidence of Recovery
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| In February the U.S payroll increased for the first time since last July. While the gains in employment are still modest (compared to the numbers of jobs that have been lost over the last year) and are expected to remain moderate in coming months, the data are the best evidence to date that the US economy is emerging from its slump.
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 11-15 March
|
| |
Irish Economy Review and Outlook
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
|
| There was a sharp slowdown in the pace of growth in the Irish economy during 2001. There are indications that the economy troughed in the closing months of last year but even with activity expected to pick up over the course of 2002, the average growth rate for this year will be relatively subdued. Check out our latest issue of The Irish Economy Review and Outlook which outlines our latest forecast scenario.
|
| |
US GDP Upgrade Good News for Dollar
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| Fourth quarter US GDP was revised up sharply from 0.2% (annualised) to 1.4%. The numbers are good news for the dollar and US equities as the reinforce expectations that the economy will recover in the near-term.
|
| |
Fed in No Hurry to Hike Rates
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan’s cautiously optimistic economic and monetary policy testimony to Congress last Wednesday reinforces our view that the Fed will be content to leave US interest rates at their current low level for sometime to come and will also retain its easing bias.
|
| |
Dissecting the Data
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
|
| The day on which many of the Presidential primaries are held in the US is called Super Tuesday. It felt like Super Thursday yesterday in Ireland with the release of a raft of major economic statistics covering inflation, the labour market and economic growth.
|
| |
US Payroll Due to Turn Upwards
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| After six months of heavy job losses the US payroll is expected to show a modest improvement in February. Activity data are showing a slight improvement in factory conditions and first time jobless claims continue to decline.
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of Economic Releases and Key Market Events for 4-8 March 2002
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 25 Feb- 1 Mar
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 18-22 February
|
| |
US Consumer is Still Spending
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| Headline retail sales met expectations in January, dropping 0.2% from the previous month. However, ex auto retail sales were up 1.2%.
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 11-15 February
|
| |
Will the BoE Be The First to Change Course
UK Economy & Financial Markets
|
| As signs of a global recovery begin to intensify the debate is now firmly centered around the timing of interest rates hikes. Given current conditions we believe that the Bank of England will be the first leading central bank to move to a tightening mode.
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 4-8 February
|
| |
US Labour Market Remains Weak
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| Although a number of indictors are suggesting that the US economy has bottomed, the employment situation remains weak.
|
| |
US Economy Grows By Unexpected 0.2% in Q4
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| According to initial estimates the US economy grew by 0.2% (annualised) in the fourth quarter of last year. It had been expected to contract by 1.0%
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 28 Janaury - 1 February
|
| |
Factoring in the Central Bankers
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| We got a policy steer from all three leading central bank this week, with Alan Greenspan delivering testimony before the Senate Budget Committee, the ECB releasing its monthly bulletin and President Wim Duisenberg meeting with the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee and the Bank of England releasing the minutes of its last monthly meeting.
|
| |
Monthly Market Focus January 2002
Euro Economy & Financial Markets
|
| This is a new look Monthly Market Focus containing our latest interest rate and exchange rate forecasts, along with our view on the Irish economy.
|
| |
US Update
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| According to the latest set of data, the US consumer is alive and well and spending, the necessary inventory liquidation is proceeding, industrial production is increasing at an slower rate and the rate of job losses is less severe than it was.
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 21-25 Jan 2002
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 21-25 Jan 2002
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 7- 11 Janaury
|
| |
Pace of US Job Losses Eases
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| The US labour market situation deteriorated again in December though the number of jobs lost was only about a third of that shed in the previous month.
|
| |
Weekly Economics Dairy
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 7-11 Janaury 02
|
| |
Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key events for 24th Dec- 4th Jan
|
| |
BoE Engineers Soft Landing
UK Economy & Financial Markets
|
| Since the Bank of England first reduced interest rates in February of this year, it has campaigned actively to protect the UK economy from the global slowdown, cutting the base rate by a cumulative 2.0% to 4.0%.
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events
|
| |
Weekly Economics Dairy
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economc releases and key market events for 10-14 December
|
| |
Another Sharp Drop in US Employment in November
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| Job losses in the US were far greater than expected in November with the payroll falling 331,000. In addition to the very weak November report, October’s number was revised up from 415,000 to 468,000.
|
| |
Irish Economy Update
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
|
| The latest set of national accounts data from the CSO confirm that the slowdown in the Irish economy has gained momentum over the course for the year.
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key markets events for 3-7 December
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 26 Nov - 30 Nov
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key events for 19 - 23 November
|
| |
Markets Turn As Recovery Hopes Rise
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| What a week.! Financial markets now firmly believe that an economic recovery in the US and, by implication the rest of the world, is in sight.
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of Economic Releases and Key Market Events
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of Economic Releases and Key Market Events for 5th-9th Nov
|
| |
UK Economy Stays Resilient
UK Economy & Financial Markets
|
| The provisional estimate for third-quarter GDP growth of 0.6% on the quarter came in just above expectations of a 0.5% rise, and represents a robust 2.2% rise on the year.
|
| |
US Economy Contracts 0.4% in Q3
US Economy & Financial Markets
|
| According to advance estimates, US Q3 GDP came in better than expected but still showed a 0.4% contraction (on an annualised basis) for the three months July-September. A drop of 1.0% had been expected.
|
| |
Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
|
| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 29 Oct - 2 Nov
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ECB Signals “No Change” Yet
Euro Economy & Financial Markets
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| It would be difficult to find anyone who would argue against the need for further easing of monetary policy in the eurozone. The timing of such reductions however, is as always, the subject of much debate and speculation will be intense in the run up to this week’s meeting.
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BoE Stays in Easing Mode
UK Economy & Financial Markets
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| Any notion that the MPC’s decision not to be as aggressive as the ECB and the Fed in September signalled a more hawkish stance from the Bank of England has proved wide of the mark.
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Weekly Economic Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 22-26 October
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Non-Farm Payrolls Fall Sharply in September
US Economy & Financial Markets
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| Although the impact of the September attacks will not show up until next month, employment fell by almost twice what was expected in September.
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Blair Puts EMU Back on Agenda For Sterling
UK Economy & Financial Markets
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| Following the events of the 11 September the issue of sterling joining EMU was pushed to the background. However, the tone of the Prime Minster’s comments at the Labour Party Conference suggest that membership is still very much on the agenda.
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Economic And Financial Impact of Terrorist Attack on US
US Economy & Financial Markets
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| It is too early to make anything but tentative forecasts as to the effects of the terrorist attack on the US. This note provides an overview of our thinking.
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August Payroll Bad News for Dollar
US Economy & Financial Markets
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| The US labour market situation deteriorated significantly in August with the jobless rate rising to 4.9% and non-farm payrolls shedding another 113,000 jobs. This was more than twice what was expected. Losses were again concentrated in manufacturing with 141,000 jobs lost there.
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Mixed Bag From The US This Week
US Economy & Financial Markets
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| This week’s batch of US economic numbers were mixed with construction spending falling slightly, the manufacturing NAPM index coming in well ahead of expectations, the non-manufacturing NAPM report disappointing and non-farm payrolls much weaker than forecast.
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Poor Manufacturing Numbers Not Enough For a Move to 4.75%
UK Economy & Financial Markets
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| This week’s Bank of England monetary policy meeting coincided with the news that, after a modest rebound of 0.3% (m-on-m) in June, UK manufacturing output fell by 0.9% in July.
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US Data Continue to Worry
US Economy & Financial Markets
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| This week’s batch of US economic numbers was less than flattering with home sales moderating, consumer confidence falling when it was expected to rise, GDP growth all but coming to a standstill and jobless claims rising.
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Scehdule of economic releases and key market events for 3 - 7 September
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ECB Finally Delivers
Euro Economy & Financial Markets
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| After months of watching and waiting the ECB delivered it’s second interest rate cut of the year at last Thursday’s policy meeting. The moved reduced the refi rate to 4.25%.
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BoE on Hold For Now
UK Economy & Financial Markets
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| The Bank of England holds its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday and Thursday of this week. Rates were unexpectedly cut by 0.25% at the August meeting, reducing the base rate to 5.00%.
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WEEKLY ECONOMIC DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 27 - 31 August
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US Manufacturing Still in a Slump
US Economy & Financial Markets
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| Orders for big-ticket items in the US fell less-than-expected in July with orders for car providing underlying support once again.
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ECB Has Market on Tenterhooks
Euro Economy & Financial Markets
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| The ECB meets for the first time in nearly a month on Thursday. Expectations for a rate cut, the first since May, are running high. Over the last month conditions certainly have moved in favour of easing.
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Investment Flows Move In Euro’s Direction
Euro Economy & Financial Markets
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| European Central Bank financial account data for June show that net inflows of direct and portfolio investments to the euro zone swung into positive territory for the first month this year.
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 20-24 August
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UK Data Justify MPC Uncertainty
UK Economy & Financial Markets
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| The minutes of the last Bank of England policy gathering indicate that the meeting was a difficult one. It ended in a 6-3 vote in favour of another 0.25% cut but members views ranged from a 0.50% cut to no change at all.
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US Dollar, Overdue Correction or Collapse
US Economy & Financial Markets
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| The US dollar has finally succumbed to the pressures of a marked slowdown in the US economy, falling sharply against the euro, sterling and yen over the last 2-3 weeks.
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 13-17 August
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The US Economy & Tax Rebates
US Economy & Financial Markets
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| Following last week’s fall against the euro the dollar will be vulnerable to more bad news from the US. Crucial this week will be July’s retail sales report, which is due for release on Tuesday.
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ECB Sounds Note of Caution on Eurozone
Euro Economy & Financial Markets
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| With inflation decreasing and economic growth falling, an ECB rate cut of 0.25%, possibly as early as its meeting on 30 August, looks increasingly likely.
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Irish Consumer Price Index – July 2001
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
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| Prices fell by 0.3% in July causing the annual headline CPI rate to decline to 4.8% from 5.3% in June. A similar fall in the core (ex-mortgages) index saw the core annual rate decelerate to 4.3% from 4.5%.
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Is The US Jobs Market Stabilising?
US Economy & Financial Markets
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| US non-farm payrolls fell again in July but not by as much as had been expected and by less than half of the decrease seen in the previous month (even after a substantial downward revision).
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 6-10 August
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Weekly Economics Diary
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 30 July-3 August
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UK GDP Show Further Easing in Economic Activity
UK Economy & Financial Markets
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| According to preliminary estimates UK economic activity slowed considerably in the three months to June. GDP increased by 0.3% to give a year-on-year growth rate of 2.1%. Both numbers were in line with expectations but constitute the weakest growth rate for two and a half years. In the previous three months, the economy expanded by 0.5%, or 2.7% y-on-y.
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US Economy Weakens Further in Q2
US Economy & Financial Markets
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| Growth in the US economy slowed even further in Q2 with business investment and exports tumbling. According to preliminary estimates the economy grew by just 0.7% in the three months to June, down from an upwardly revised 1.3% growth rate in the first three months of 2001.
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Dollar Wobbles as Greenspan Becomes More Cautious
US Economy & Financial Markets
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| Last week was a difficult one for the dollar with a whole host of factors contributing to the breach of a number of key trend lines against both the euro and sterling.........
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Fall in Eurozone Inflation Won’t Hasten Rate Easing
Euro Economy & Financial Markets
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| Eurozone inflation dropped to 3.0% (y-on-y) in May, easing back from the 3.4% eight year high that its reached in May and reversing the rising trend seen since February. On a month-on-month basis consumer prices rose by 0.1%.
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for the week 23-27 July
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 16 - 20 July
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US Economy Update
US Economy & Financial Markets
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| Holding Out for Recovery.......Most analysts would still agree that their consensus view continues to be US recovery in the second half of this year. Given the sluggish data published so far for Q2 this rebound is still “faith-based”.
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US Non-Payrolls for June Show Another 114,000 Job Losses
US Economy & Financial Markets
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| The US labour market situation worsened in June as employers shed another 114,000 jobs, far more than the 44,000 drop expected. The unemployment rate returned to 4.5%.
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Outlook for UK Interest Rates
UK Economy & Financial Markets
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| Last week the Bank of England elected to leave official rates unchanged for the second month running. This was in line with our expectations and the market consensus and as such did not evoke much reaction. The key question is where the BoE goes from here.
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Outlook for Eurozone Interest Rates
Euro Economy & Financial Markets
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| “And this current monetary policy stance remains appropriate.....for some time to come”. The ECB’s decision to leave interest rates on hold was a disastrous one for the euro, which now faces the prospect that rates will not be cut until after the central bank’s summer recess.
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic events and key market releases for 11-15 July
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 2-6 July
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DAIRY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 25-28th June
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of Economic Releases and Key Market Events for 18-22 June
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of Economic Releases and Key Market Events for 11th-15th June
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 4-8th June
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key releases for the 4-8th June
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US Non-Farm Payrolls Report Bad News for Euro
US Economy & Financial Markets
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| The US economy is still shedding jobs but overall, conditions in the labour market are not as bad as they seemed. Weakness continues to be concentrated in the manufacturing sector
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ECB MUST ABANDON POLICY OF NEGLECT
Euro Economy & Financial Markets
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| The ECB remains on the sidelines as the euro falls to levels on a trade weighted basis last seen before intervention in September 2000.
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 28-May to 1 June
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic events and data releases for 18-22 May
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 7-11th May 2001
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US Labour Market Conditions Deteriorate Sharply in April
US Economy & Financial Markets
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| April’s non-farm payrolls were well outside of market expectations, falling by 223,000 compared to the 5,000 increase forecast. This was the fastest decline in jobs since February 1991, when a total of 259,000 jobs were lost.
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Eurozone Chart Book
Euro Economy & Financial Markets
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| Key iIndicators and survey show that economic activity in the eurozone is slowing with GDP growth for 2001 expected to come in at 2.5%, down from last years 3.4%
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Why The ECB Is Delaying Eurozone Rate Cuts
Euro Economy & Financial Markets
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| The ECB has stood alone amongst the major world economies in refusing to sanction an easing of monetary policy. In its statements, press conferences and monthly bulletins the central bank has defended its refusal to cut interest rates, a decision that has brought repeated criticism from the US administration, the IMF and European politicians, businesses and trade unions.
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US Q1 Growth Not Quite As Good As it Seems
US Economy & Financial Markets
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| US real GDP increased at an annualised rate of 2.0% in Q1 of 2001. This was more than double market expectations.
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UK GDP Data Justify Lower Rates
UK Economy & Financial Markets
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| UK economic growth slowed in the first quarter of this year with industrial output and construction estimated to have decelerated while growth in the services sector growth held up.
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for the 30th April - 4th May
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for the week 23-27th April
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Scehdule of economic releases and key market events for the week 16-20 March
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MONTHLY MARKET FOCUS MARCH/APRIL 2001
Euro Economy & Financial Markets
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| Our Monthly Market Focus for March/April 2001 contains our latest interest rate and exchange rate forecasts.
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for the 12-16th March
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UK BUDGET SPECIAL
UK Economy & Financial Markets
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| Gordon Brown's fifth budget package contained a raft of election winning measures but was also aimed at keeping the economy on an even keel.
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 5-9th march
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of Economic Releases and Key Events for 26th February - 2nd March
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 29-23 February
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases and key market events for 12-16th February
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UK Data Support A Gradual Easing Bias
UK Economy & Financial Markets
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| After two years of keeping the official interest rates at 6.00% the Bank of England announced a 0.25% reduction in the base rate today. No statement of explanation accompanied the announcement but next week’s Quarterly Inflation Report should provide plenty of opportunity to explain the reasoning behind the move.
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of data releases and key economic events for 5-9th February
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US Economy Slows Abruptly in Q4
US Economy & Financial Markets
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| The US economy expanded by 5.0% in 2000, its highest growth rate since 7.3% in 1984. However, this was overshadowed by the news that it grew by a mere 1.4% in the final three months.
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| A schedule of economic releases and key events for January 29 - February 2
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| SAchedule of economic releases and key market events for 22-26th Janaury
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of Economic Releases and Key Events for Janaury 8th - Janaury 12th
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of forthcoming economic releases and key market events for the period 19 December - 5 Janaury
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of economic releases for the week commening 11th December
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Focus on Budget 2001
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
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| Irish Finance Minister Charlie McCreevy delivered his fourth Budget package yesterday. Budget 2001 attempts to focus on appropriate responses to the current higher rate of inflation, addresses the issue of improvements in childcare and continues the Government’s reform of the personal taxation system.
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of Economic Releases of Key Events for the Week Commencing 4th December
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of forthcoming economic releases and key market events
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of Forthcoming Economic Releases and Key Market Events
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of forthcoming economic releases and key market events
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Diary of key economic events and statistical releases for the forthcoming week
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IRISH INFLATION UNCHANGED AT 6.2% IN SEPTEMBER
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
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| The Irish CPI was unchanged in September at 6.2%. The Irish HICP showed an annual rise of 5.5% compared with 2.8% in the eurozone.
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INTERNATIONAL INTEREST RATE OUTLOOK
Euro Economy & Financial Markets
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| This is the International Interest Rate Outlook section of our latest Quarterly Economic Focus, Autumn 2000
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| A schedule of economic releases for Sept18th-22nd
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| A schedule of economic releases for 11-15th September
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ECB WARNS IRELAND ON INFLATION
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
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| Wim Duisenberg, the President of the ECB, advised Ireland to look to fiscal and other policies to control Irish inflation. However, he failed to identify the biggest contributor-the ever weakening euro.
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of key economic releases and events for the week commencing 4th September
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| A schedule of economic releases for the forthcoming week
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Irish Inflation Hits 6.2%
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
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| The CPI continued to rise in July with the year-on-year rate reaching 6.2%, up from 5.5% in June. Prices increased 0.3% between June and July.
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| Schedule of ecomonic releases for the week commencing 7th August
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WEEKLY ECONOMICS DIARY
Other Publications
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| A Schedule of the Key Economic Releases for the Forthcoming Week
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Bank of England Holds Fire as Sterling Rises
UK Economy & Financial Markets
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| The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at May's policy meeting. The vote was likely to have been a tight one with the MPC's hawks finding plently of reasons for raising rates. However, the case is not as clear cut as previously thought
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PMI Underpins Eurozone Recovery Story
Euro Economy & Financial Markets
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| The euro's rapid decline against other major currencies is not all bad news with eurozone manufacturers enjoying the strongest pace of growth in nearly 3 years in April.
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On Fed Alert
US Economy & Financial Markets
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| The strength of the US GDP and Employment Cost Index for Q1 has heightened the risk of a 50 basis point rate hike at the 16 May FOMC meeting. However, we still believe the Fed will maintain its gradualist approach and hike by 25 basis points.
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US Inflation A Shock To The System
US Economy & Financial Markets
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| The US CPI release for March was quite a shock to the financial markets, with the headline rate rising by 0.7% and the core rate rising by 0.4%. However, the number for March is not necessarily a precursor of higher inflation in the US.
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Monthly Market Focus-April/May 2000
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| Economic data from the eurozone remain overwhelmingly positive. Survey results point to further acceleration in growth going forward. However, the outlook for the euro remains grim.
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The Impact Of Oil Price Shocks
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| Oil prices have more than doubled over the past year or so. However, the pre-emtive nature of monetary policy in the US means that the inflationary consequences of higher oil prices will be minimised.
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EU Commission Forecasts
Euro Economy & Financial Markets
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| Some of the key forecasts for the euro area contained in yesterdays EU commission report are set out below.
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Poland Moves to Free Floating Currency
Euro Economy & Financial Markets
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| The National Bank of Poland announced on 11 April that it is removing the remaining restrictions on zloty trading, allowing it to float freely on foreign exchange markets.
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Irish Labour Market - Buoyant Employment Growth
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
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| Irish employment grey by 6.3% on average during 1999, with 95,000 net new jobs being created.
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The Irish Housing Market - Prices to Rise Another 15% in 2000
Irish Economy & Financial Markets
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| Irish house prices have risen rapidly since the mid 1990's and 1999 was no exception.
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