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Saturday 4 September 2010 |
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Research Centre |
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Exchange Rate Monthly
There are 10 Research Centre articles available in this category. Please select the required article from those listed below:
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EXCHANGE RATE MONTHLY MAY - JUNE 2005
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| The dollar’s recovery has gained momentum on fresh evidence that the US economy is still growing at a solid pace. Data have also shown some early signs of an improvement in structural imbalances. Expectations of higher US rates should provide underlying support to the dollar over the short-term. However, we have yet to be convinced that what we are currently seeing represents a fundamental change in direction. Sterling has come under pressure against both the dollar and euro in response to weaker UK economic data. Sentiment looks set to remain poor as markets debate the direction of the next move in official rates.
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EXCHANGE RATE MONTHLY FEBRUARY - MARCH 2005
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| EXCHANGE RATE MONTHLY FEBRUARY - MARCH 2005
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EXCHANGE RATE MONTHLY JANUARY FEBRUARY 2005
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| EXCHANGE RATE MONTHLY JANUARY FEBRUARY 2005
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EXCHANGE RATE MONTHLY - OCTOBER/NOVEMBER 2004
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| We retain our negative bias towards the US dollar as we head into a period of increased political uncertainty with the US Presidential election on 2 November. A more sustained break above $1.25 is on the cards for the rest of the year.
A support for the dollar is the lack of attractive major currency alternatives. There are signs that the ECB is increasingly worried about the impact of sustained high oil prices on the euro area's export driven expansion. This could put the ECB on hold until mid-2005.
Weak economic and housing market data have taken their toll on sterling. The UK currency could continue to suffer versus the euro, moving towards £0.71 in the short term, but should gain against the weakening dollar.
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EXCHANGE RATE MONTHLY SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2004
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| * The outlook for the dollar remains very uncertain, though
it is expected to trade within established ranges ahead of
the Presidential election in November. Thereafter, the
outlook is more uncertain with a break above $1.25 a
strong possibility.
* The dollar will find some support from further Fed interest
rate hikes and from the lack of attractive alternative
currencies for investors. However, the US fiscal and
particularly the external account deficits pose material
threats to the dollar.
* Sterling is expected to remain under pressure versus the
dollar and euro in the near term but falls should be limited
from here.
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EXCHANGE RATE MONTHLY AUGUST/SEPTEMBER 2004
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| The US dollar is under pressure from high crude oil prices, the slowdown in US economic growth and employment and questions about the extent to which the Fed will raise interest rates again in 2004. Markets now wait for the August US non-farm payrolls report on 3 September for direction. We expect the dollar to trade within the top half of a $1.20-1.25 range versus the euro in the short term. A brake above $1.25 could occur on further jobs weakness in September. Sterling is drifting versus the euro and some further sterling softness is likely, towards £0.68 or higher.
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EXCHANGE RATE MONTHLY JUNE/JULY 2004
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| The dollar's short term outlook is dependent on Fed policy at the end of the month and the success of the handover of sovereignty in Iraq, also at end month. We expect the EUR/USD to remain within $1.18-1.23 over the summer.
Sterling is well supported by a sound economy and relatively high interest rates. However, domestic political concerns and Iraq leave the currency vulnerable. A sustained break below £0.66 versus the euro hangs in the balance.
The Fed is forecast to hike official US interest rates by 0.25% at end June, marking a turning point in policy.
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Exchange Rate Monthly (March 2004)
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| Volatility on forex markets remains exceptionally high but the dollar is showing resilience despite persistent weakness in the US labour market ....The recent actions by the BoJ have had a marked influence on forex levels. There is much uncertainty regarding its next move but fears of intervention could still be a factor in preventing the euro from re-establishing an uptrend.
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Exchange Rate Monthly (Feb 2004)
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| Dollar weakness remains the chief focus as interest rate differentials drive forex levels post February's G7 meeting. Markets have turned more cautious on the euro following comments from eurozone officials with higher yielders like sterling and the Aussie dollar outperforming
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Exchange Rate Monthly
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| The outlook for the dollar continues to dominate fx markets, which we expect to remain volatile over 2004. Currently pressurised by comments from eurozone officials, we see scope for a technical correction in the euro to the $1.20 level and possibly even below. However, downside pressures still exist for the USD and the euro could still have to bear the brunt of a longer-term dollar adjustment.
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