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Saturday 4 September 2010 |
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Research Centre |
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Irish Economy & Financial Markets
There are 50 Research Centre articles available in this category. Please select the required article from those listed below:
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Non-Irish National Workers in the Irish Economy - Update
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| The CSO Quarterly National Household Survey for Q4 2005. The release includes a breakdown of employment by nationality. On the basis of this release we have updated some of the findings of our recent more complete report on Non-Irish National Workers in Ireland.
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Non-National Workers in the Irish Economy
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| This report examines the scale and sectoral distribution of non-national employment in Ireland.
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quarterly update april 2005
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| AIB anticipates a very favourable outlook for the Irish economy over 2005 and 2006. GDP is expected to grow by 6% in real terms in 2005, with even faster growth of 6.5% forecast for 2006. This growth will be broad based with a strong contribution coming from both domestic demand and net exports. Economic growth in excess of 5% is somewhat above Ireland’s longer term potential but in the short term there is scope for outperformance in light of our exceptionally strong growth in employment. Meanwhile, inflation is expected to remain moderate over the forecast period.
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HOUSING UPDATE APRIL 2005
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| The Irish housing market has been supported by sustained job creation and by increased personal wealth - manifesting itself through the purchase of second homes and rental property as an investment. Any significant downturn in either sector would obviously pose a threat to the overall housing market. However, house price inflation is expected to moderate further and by end 2005 could be down to 5% or below. Prices may then rise by less than 3% in 2006. With the threat of a price blowout diminishing, continuing low interest rates and a robust labour market, AIB see little risk of a market crash and continue to believe that the housing market will achieve a soft landing.
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BUDGET 2005
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| Overview * EBR projected to rise to €3bn in 2005 * General Government deficit of €1.2bn next year or 0.8% of GDP * EBR target may be undershot * A stimulatory budget * Good income boost for taxpayers * Solid growth and low inflation forecast for 2005 * Modest net bond issuance next year *
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THE IRISH ECONOMY OCTOBER 2004
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| The Irish economy has strengthened over the past year with real GDP growth hitting 5.1% in Q4 2003 and again in H1 2004. The pick up in activity has been led by a rebound in business investment and exports. The prospects for the economy remain favourable with sound domestic fundamentals and improved global economic conditions. We expect real GDP and GNP to rise by 5.5% and 5.0%, respectively, in both 2004 and 2005.
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THE IRISH HOUSING MARKET OCTOBER 2004
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| SOFT LANDING ACHIEVABLE * There are undoubtedly risks to the Irish housing market with price inflation still relatively high, a surge in supply and substantial reliance on the investment market. However, we believe that comfortable affordability levels, continuing low interest rates and the improved economic climate, particularly a robust labour market, together with untapped demand, should cushion the market, allowing it to achieve a soft landing.
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IRISH ECONOMIC UPDATE - JULY 2004
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| The latest data show that the Irish economy has moved on to a firm growth path with GDP likely to increase by 5.5% in 2004 and 6% in 2005. Employment is now rising by close to 3% yoy with the unemployment rate low at around 4.5%. Inflation has fallen below eurozone levels. Meanwhile, the general government budget is set to remain broadly in balance this year. This is pretty close to economic nirvana.
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THE IRISH ECONOMY APRIL 2004
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| The Irish economy is moving back onto a firmer footing with real GDP forecast to grow by at least 4% this year and by 5% in 2005 * Economic growth will be more broadly based * Sizeable growth in domestic demand and exports, the latter aided by the robust global economic recovery* The labour market is resilient * CPI inflation will average 1.9% in 2004 and 2.7% in 2005 * The Irish public finances are in good shape * The annual rate of increase in house prices should decelerate to around 7% by end year.
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THE IRISH HOUSING MARKET APRIL 2004
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| The Irish housing market exhibits none of the signs of a bubble about to burst * Housing supply, though, is at very high levels which should exert downward pressure on house prices * House price inflation could slow to around 7% by end year * While the market remains vulnerable to any withdrawal by investors it is well underpinned on the demand side and should be able to move to more moderate and sustainable levels in terms of both supply levels and prices.
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Irish Exchequer Returns March 2004
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| The Irish Exchequer recorded a budget surplus of €272m in the first three months of the year. This compares with a deficit of €205m in the same period of 2003
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Irish Inflation Rate Eases Further To 1.7%
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| The deceleration in inflation evident during 2003 continued in the first two months of 2004. The headline CPI rate edged down to 1.7% in February from 1.8% in January and 1.9% in December 2003.
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Irish Inflation Rate Eases Further
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| The deceleration in inflation evident during 2003 continued in the first two months of 2004. The headline CPI rate edged down to 1.7% in February from 1.8% in January and 1.9% in December 2003.
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Consumer Price Index - January 2004
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| The deceleration in inflation, which has been evident since early 2003, continued in the first month of 2004. The headline CPI rate edged down to 1.8% from 1.9% in December.
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Budget 2004
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| Irish Finance Minister Charlie McCreevy delivered a broadly neutral budget yesterday. In terms of the main features, the public finances stand in good shape.
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Irish Inflation Falls to 2.9% in September
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| The annual rate of Irish inflation decelerated to 2.9% in September from 3.2% in August. There were clear signs of an easing in inflation pressures right across the board.
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Irish Economy Review & Outlook
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| Data published for the first half of the year paint a mixed picture of the Irish economy. There are some signs though of a strengthening of activity in line with recent trends in most other economies.
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Irish Economy Review and Outlook
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| Data published for the first half of the year paint a mixed picture of the Irish economy. There are some signs though of a strengthening of activity in line with recent trends in most other economies.
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Consumer Price Index - August 2003
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| The headline CPI rose by 0.7% in August, largely reflecting the ending of the summer sales. As a result, the annual inflation rate edged higher to 3.2% from 3.1% previously.
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Irish Inflation Rate Falls Again In June
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| Inflation fell for the fourth consecutive month in June. Prices were flat on the month, with the year-on-year rate at 3.5%, down from 3.7% in May.
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Irish Inflation Rate Falls Sharply in May
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| Irish inflation data for May came in much better than expected. Overall, prices fell 0.1% in May with the annual inflation rate decelerating to 3.7% from 4.3% in April.
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Consumer Price Index - April 2003
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| Irish prices increased by 0.3% over the month of April. This compares with an increase of 0.9% in April of last year. As a result the annual inflation rate fell from 4.9% to 4.3%.
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Irish Inflation Falls in March
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| The annual rate of inflation fell to 4.9% in March, down from 5.1% in February. While the headline inflation rate will trend lower over the year a number of underlying pressures remain
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Irish Consumer Price Index - February 2003
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| Irish inflation moved back above 5.0% in February, underpinning concerns about price pressures as the economy slows
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Irish Inflation Falls to 4.8%
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| Prices fell 0.4% in Janaury and as a result he annual infaltion rate dropped to 4.8% from 5.0%. This was much better than expected.
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Irish inflation rises to 5.0%
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| Irish prices rose 0.7% in December 2002, and as a result, the annual inflation rate rose to 5.0% from 4.8% in November. The acceleration in the headline inflation rate reflects to a large extent the impact of Budget 2003
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Budget 2003
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| Our views on Budget 2003
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Budget 2003
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| Our views on Budget 2003
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Irish Inflation Remains High
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| Irish inflation rose 0.5% in September, and 4.5% y-on-y. Service infaltion levels remain high and there is little prospect of a fall below 4.0% over the coming months.
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Irish Economy Review and Outlook
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| The Irish economy is forecast to grow by 4% in 2002 but growth will be narrowly based.
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Irish Consumer Price Index - April 2002
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| Prices rose by 0.9% in April leaving the annual rate unchanged from March at 4.8%. There was a similar rise in both the core (ex mortgages) and HICP indices.
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Irish Inflation.......Service Included !
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The decline in Irish CPI inflation during 2001 masked the fact that there was continuing strong upward pressure on prices last year. If one excludes changes in mortgage rates and indirect taxes, one finds that the underlying level of inflation remained broadly unchanged during 2001 at around 5%.
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Irish Inflation Up 0.7% in February
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| The ending of the winter sales is the main feature of February CPI data and, as a result, the headline CPI rate rose by 0.7%. This compares to a 0.9% increase in February 2001. Thus, the annual rate decelerated from 4.9% to 4.7%. The core (i.e. ex-mortgages) and HICP indices rose by 0.7% and 0.6% respectively. As a result, the annual core rate fell from 5.5% to 5.2%, with the HICP rate decelerating from 5.2% to 4.9%.
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Irish Economy Review and Outlook
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| There was a sharp slowdown in the pace of growth in the Irish economy during 2001. There are indications that the economy troughed in the closing months of last year but even with activity expected to pick up over the course of 2002, the average growth rate for this year will be relatively subdued. Check out our latest issue of The Irish Economy Review and Outlook which outlines our latest forecast scenario.
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Dissecting the Data
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| The day on which many of the Presidential primaries are held in the US is called Super Tuesday. It felt like Super Thursday yesterday in Ireland with the release of a raft of major economic statistics covering inflation, the labour market and economic growth.
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Irish Economy Update
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| The latest set of national accounts data from the CSO confirm that the slowdown in the Irish economy has gained momentum over the course for the year.
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Irish Consumer Price Index – July 2001
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| Prices fell by 0.3% in July causing the annual headline CPI rate to decline to 4.8% from 5.3% in June. A similar fall in the core (ex-mortgages) index saw the core annual rate decelerate to 4.3% from 4.5%.
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Focus on Budget 2001
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| Irish Finance Minister Charlie McCreevy delivered his fourth Budget package yesterday. Budget 2001 attempts to focus on appropriate responses to the current higher rate of inflation, addresses the issue of improvements in childcare and continues the Government’s reform of the personal taxation system.
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IRISH INFLATION RISES TO 6.8% IN OCTOBER
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| Irish inflation rose to 6.8% in October and should peak at 7% in November.
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MORNING COMMENT 23 OCTOBER 2000
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| Renewed tensions in the Middle East will keep downward pressure on euro.
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MORNING COMMENT 20 OCTOBER 2000
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| ECB President Wim Duisenberg and euro survive yesterday's press conference.
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IRISH INFLATION UNCHANGED AT 6.2% IN SEPTEMBER
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| The Irish CPI was unchanged in September at 6.2%. The Irish HICP showed an annual rise of 5.5% compared with 2.8% in the eurozone.
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MORNING COMMENT 17 OCTOBER 2000
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| The euro fell yesterday, hit by friendly fire from the ECB President
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IS THE CELTIC TIGER HEADING FOR BUBBLE TROUBLE?
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| The pdf file version of our latest QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FOCUS, Autumn 2000.
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MORNING COMMENT 16 October 2000
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| Morning comment for 16 October covering Wim Duisenberg's Times interview.
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ECB WARNS IRELAND ON INFLATION
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| Wim Duisenberg, the President of the ECB, advised Ireland to look to fiscal and other policies to control Irish inflation. However, he failed to identify the biggest contributor-the ever weakening euro.
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Irish Inflation Hits 6.2%
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| The CPI continued to rise in July with the year-on-year rate reaching 6.2%, up from 5.5% in June. Prices increased 0.3% between June and July.
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Irish Inflation
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| Acceleration in Inflation Potentially Damaging to Psychology of Low Inflation which Prevailed in 1990’s.
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Irish Labour Market - Buoyant Employment Growth
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| Irish employment grey by 6.3% on average during 1999, with 95,000 net new jobs being created.
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The Irish Housing Market - Prices to Rise Another 15% in 2000
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| Irish house prices have risen rapidly since the mid 1990's and 1999 was no exception.
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