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Saturday 4 September 2010 |
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Research Centre |
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US Economy & Financial Markets
There are 53 Research Centre articles available in this category. Please select the required article from those listed below:
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US Payrolls Data Disappoint
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| The US employment situation was weaker than expected in June. Payrolls declined by 30,000 compared to our anticipated drop of just 7,000. Furthermore, the numbers were revised down substantially for the two previous months
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Dollar Set for Further Declines
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| The trend has moved more decisively against the US dollar. The risk of further declines has intensified.
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Payrolls Report No Support for Dollar
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| US employment losses continued in April with payrolls falling by 48,000. Job losses in March were revised up to 124,000 from 108,000. Manufacturing continues to shed jobs, experiencing its largest job loss in 15 months.
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US Growth Stays Below Trend
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| The US economy grew by an annualised 1.6% in the first quarter of the year. This was below expectations and only marginally better than the Q4’s 1.4% growth rate.
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Focus on US Capital Flows
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The latest monthly portfolio data from the US Treasury indicate that foreigners showed a strong preference for US fixed income products in November. The total net demand for assets was measured at $66.0bn, up from $42.30bn in the previous month.
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Rise in Payroll Fails to Inspire Dollar
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| US employment numbers increased by 143,000 in January, well above the consensus forecast and going some way towards offsetting the loss of 156,000 in December. However, despite the optimistic headline number the labour market remains very weak
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US Growth Stays Subdued and Uneven
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| Continuing 2002’s uneven pattern, US Q4 GDP growth came in at a disappointing 0.7% (saar). In the third quarter the economy had grown by 4.0% (saar). This brings the growth rate for the year as a whole to 2.4%, well below the economy’s potential growth rate of 3.5%.
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Payrolls Report Not Good News for Dollar
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| The US payroll employment declined by 101,000 in December; consensus estimates called for an increase of 22,000. The November data were revised down to a loss of 88,000, from 40,000.
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Euro Rallies on US Uncertainty
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| The euro has rallied over 2% against the dollar over the last two weeks, taking it a three year high of $1.0239. This brings its gains in the year to date to 14.1%. Breaking through key chart levels around $1.0210, the currency also rallied to five month highs against sterling and a nine month high against the Swiss franc.
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Weak Labour Market to Weigh on Dollar
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| The US labour market performed much more poorly than expected in November. Net employment declined by 40,000, instead of rising by an expected 38,000. The jobless rate rose to 6.0%, matching the cyclical high reached earlier this year in April.
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Dollar Up on Payrolls Report
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| US employment declined by 43,000 in September, well below consensus estimates for a 5,000 rise. This marked the first decline in the payroll since April.
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US Payrolls Report Dampens Talk of Lower Rates
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| August’s non farm payrolls report, which showed the work force increasing by 39,000 was well received by the markets. The dollar jumped over half a cent against the euro on the release, with stocks also rallying.
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Dollar on Emotional Roller Coaster
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| The failure of the Fed to provide a boost to the US economy by cutting interest rates has seen some of the bearish sentiment towards the dollar return. Speculation that the Fed could cut rates had helped to turnaround a wave of negative sentiment against the US currency.
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US Economic Risks Are Rising
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| With speculation of a new round of rate cuts in the US running high, the main focus of the week will be Tuesday’s FOMC meeting. Clearly the outlook for the US economy has deteriorated since the Fed’s last meeting in late June and Chairman Alan Greenspan’s subsequent address to Congress.
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US Labour Market Remains Weak
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| Reflecting the mid-year lull in the US economy, the labor market remained weak in June. As expected, the unemployment rate rose to 5.9% from 5.8% in May.
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Dollar Alternatives Don’t Inspire
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| Over the past month the dollar has depreciated against all the other main currencies, falling to multi-month troughs against the euro, yen and sterling. As a result, the dollar’s trade weighted index has fallen by some 3%.
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US Economy Expands by Robust 5.8%
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| The advance estimate of first quarter GDP was better than forecast with the headline growth rate of 5.8% above the consensus forecast of 5.0%. This robust growth rate is up from a 1.7% rate in the fourth quarter and was the fastest growth since Q4 1999.
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US Q4 GDP Revised Up to 1.7%
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| The U.S. economy grew by even more than first estimated in the final three months of last year. On an annualised basis, GDP growth was revised upwards from 1.4% to 1.7%.
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Confidence in US Economy Surges
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| With the brief recession likely over at this stage, US consumer confidence surged in March, jumping by a much higher than expected 15 points to 110.2. This was the biggest monthly increase in 25 years.
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US Industrial Production Up 0.4%
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| This week provided even more evidence that the US economy is in recovery. In February, industrial production registered its biggest bounce since June 2000, increasing by 0.4% compared with forecasts for a 0.3% rise.
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US Industrial Production Up 0.4%
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| This week provided even more evidence that the US economy is in recovery. In February, industrial production registered its biggest bounce since June 2000, increasing by 0.4% compared with forecasts for a 0.3% rise.
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US Payroll Shows Evidence of Recovery
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| In February the U.S payroll increased for the first time since last July. While the gains in employment are still modest (compared to the numbers of jobs that have been lost over the last year) and are expected to remain moderate in coming months, the data are the best evidence to date that the US economy is emerging from its slump.
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US GDP Upgrade Good News for Dollar
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| Fourth quarter US GDP was revised up sharply from 0.2% (annualised) to 1.4%. The numbers are good news for the dollar and US equities as the reinforce expectations that the economy will recover in the near-term.
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Fed in No Hurry to Hike Rates
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| Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan’s cautiously optimistic economic and monetary policy testimony to Congress last Wednesday reinforces our view that the Fed will be content to leave US interest rates at their current low level for sometime to come and will also retain its easing bias.
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US Payroll Due to Turn Upwards
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| After six months of heavy job losses the US payroll is expected to show a modest improvement in February. Activity data are showing a slight improvement in factory conditions and first time jobless claims continue to decline.
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US Consumer is Still Spending
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| Headline retail sales met expectations in January, dropping 0.2% from the previous month. However, ex auto retail sales were up 1.2%.
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US Labour Market Remains Weak
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| Although a number of indictors are suggesting that the US economy has bottomed, the employment situation remains weak.
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US Economy Grows By Unexpected 0.2% in Q4
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| According to initial estimates the US economy grew by 0.2% (annualised) in the fourth quarter of last year. It had been expected to contract by 1.0%
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Factoring in the Central Bankers
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| We got a policy steer from all three leading central bank this week, with Alan Greenspan delivering testimony before the Senate Budget Committee, the ECB releasing its monthly bulletin and President Wim Duisenberg meeting with the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee and the Bank of England releasing the minutes of its last monthly meeting.
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US Update
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| According to the latest set of data, the US consumer is alive and well and spending, the necessary inventory liquidation is proceeding, industrial production is increasing at an slower rate and the rate of job losses is less severe than it was.
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Pace of US Job Losses Eases
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| The US labour market situation deteriorated again in December though the number of jobs lost was only about a third of that shed in the previous month.
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Another Sharp Drop in US Employment in November
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| Job losses in the US were far greater than expected in November with the payroll falling 331,000. In addition to the very weak November report, October’s number was revised up from 415,000 to 468,000.
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Markets Turn As Recovery Hopes Rise
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| What a week.! Financial markets now firmly believe that an economic recovery in the US and, by implication the rest of the world, is in sight.
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US Economy Contracts 0.4% in Q3
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| According to advance estimates, US Q3 GDP came in better than expected but still showed a 0.4% contraction (on an annualised basis) for the three months July-September. A drop of 1.0% had been expected.
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Non-Farm Payrolls Fall Sharply in September
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| Although the impact of the September attacks will not show up until next month, employment fell by almost twice what was expected in September.
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Economic And Financial Impact of Terrorist Attack on US
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| It is too early to make anything but tentative forecasts as to the effects of the terrorist attack on the US. This note provides an overview of our thinking.
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August Payroll Bad News for Dollar
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| The US labour market situation deteriorated significantly in August with the jobless rate rising to 4.9% and non-farm payrolls shedding another 113,000 jobs. This was more than twice what was expected. Losses were again concentrated in manufacturing with 141,000 jobs lost there.
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Mixed Bag From The US This Week
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| This week’s batch of US economic numbers were mixed with construction spending falling slightly, the manufacturing NAPM index coming in well ahead of expectations, the non-manufacturing NAPM report disappointing and non-farm payrolls much weaker than forecast.
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US Data Continue to Worry
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| This week’s batch of US economic numbers was less than flattering with home sales moderating, consumer confidence falling when it was expected to rise, GDP growth all but coming to a standstill and jobless claims rising.
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US Manufacturing Still in a Slump
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| Orders for big-ticket items in the US fell less-than-expected in July with orders for car providing underlying support once again.
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US Dollar, Overdue Correction or Collapse
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| The US dollar has finally succumbed to the pressures of a marked slowdown in the US economy, falling sharply against the euro, sterling and yen over the last 2-3 weeks.
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The US Economy & Tax Rebates
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| Following last week’s fall against the euro the dollar will be vulnerable to more bad news from the US. Crucial this week will be July’s retail sales report, which is due for release on Tuesday.
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Is The US Jobs Market Stabilising?
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| US non-farm payrolls fell again in July but not by as much as had been expected and by less than half of the decrease seen in the previous month (even after a substantial downward revision).
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US Economy Weakens Further in Q2
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| Growth in the US economy slowed even further in Q2 with business investment and exports tumbling. According to preliminary estimates the economy grew by just 0.7% in the three months to June, down from an upwardly revised 1.3% growth rate in the first three months of 2001.
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Dollar Wobbles as Greenspan Becomes More Cautious
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| Last week was a difficult one for the dollar with a whole host of factors contributing to the breach of a number of key trend lines against both the euro and sterling.........
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US Economy Update
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| Holding Out for Recovery.......Most analysts would still agree that their consensus view continues to be US recovery in the second half of this year. Given the sluggish data published so far for Q2 this rebound is still “faith-based”.
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US Non-Payrolls for June Show Another 114,000 Job Losses
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| The US labour market situation worsened in June as employers shed another 114,000 jobs, far more than the 44,000 drop expected. The unemployment rate returned to 4.5%.
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US Non-Farm Payrolls Report Bad News for Euro
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| The US economy is still shedding jobs but overall, conditions in the labour market are not as bad as they seemed. Weakness continues to be concentrated in the manufacturing sector
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US Labour Market Conditions Deteriorate Sharply in April
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| April’s non-farm payrolls were well outside of market expectations, falling by 223,000 compared to the 5,000 increase forecast. This was the fastest decline in jobs since February 1991, when a total of 259,000 jobs were lost.
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US Q1 Growth Not Quite As Good As it Seems
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| US real GDP increased at an annualised rate of 2.0% in Q1 of 2001. This was more than double market expectations.
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US Economy Slows Abruptly in Q4
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| The US economy expanded by 5.0% in 2000, its highest growth rate since 7.3% in 1984. However, this was overshadowed by the news that it grew by a mere 1.4% in the final three months.
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On Fed Alert
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| The strength of the US GDP and Employment Cost Index for Q1 has heightened the risk of a 50 basis point rate hike at the 16 May FOMC meeting. However, we still believe the Fed will maintain its gradualist approach and hike by 25 basis points.
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US Inflation A Shock To The System
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| The US CPI release for March was quite a shock to the financial markets, with the headline rate rising by 0.7% and the core rate rising by 0.4%. However, the number for March is not necessarily a precursor of higher inflation in the US.
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