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Saturday 4 September 2010 |
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Research Centre |
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UK Economy & Financial Markets
There are 26 Research Centre articles available in this category. Please select the required article from those listed below:
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Obstacles Still Ahead for Sterling Entry into EMU
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| On 9 June, UK Chancellor Gordon Brown delivered his long-awaited assessment of the UK’s requirements for entry into EMU The Chancellor was positive about the long-run benefits of membership of the single currency but, in the short-term, felt that the UK was not ready to join.
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UK Growth Disappoints in Q1
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| The UK economy grew by just 0.2% in the first three months of 2002. This was below expectations and continued the subdued picture evident in Q4 2002 when growth was 0.4%.
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UK Budget 2003 Assessment
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| As expected the Chancellor has revised down his growth forecast for 2003 from the growth rate contained in November’s pre-budget report. At the same time he has raised his forecasts for RPIX at end 2003.
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UK Budget 2003 Assessment
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| As expected the Chancellor has revised down his growth forecast for 2003 from the growth rate contained in November’s pre-budget report. However, he left the forecast for 2004 unchanged. At the same time he has raised his forecasts for RPIX at end 2003.
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UK Economy on Borrowed Time ?
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| During the current slowdown in the global economy the UK has been one of the bright spots. This outperformance has been mainly due to the strength of consumer demand. However, in January the volume of retail sales fell 1.0%. On a year-on-year basis sales were up 4.2%, compared to 6.0% in December. This decline was well in excess of market expectations.
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UK Economy to Outperform in 2003
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| In the final quarter of 2002 the UK economy expanded by a modest 0.4 per cent, compared with 0.9 per cent in the previous quarter. The annual rate of growth was 2.2 per cent. Growth for the calendar year 2002 as a whole is estimated as 1.7 per cent over 2001. This follows growth of 2.0 per cent for 2001.
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UK Economy Rebounds in Q2
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| The UK economy expanded by 0.9% in the second quarter of the year. This was in line with expectations and showed a considerable improvement on the two previous quarter’s performance.
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Low Inflation to Keep BoE Inactive
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| The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 8-1 to leave interest rates at 4.0 per cent for the eighth month running in July. The central bank’s Deputy Governor, Mervyn King, was again alone in calling for higher interest rates.
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UK Economy Disappoints in Q1
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| The UK economy expanded by just 0.1% in the first three months of the year. This was below expectations for a 0.4% rise and showed little improvement from Q4’s flat performance.
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Is UK Manufacturing Off Life Support
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| The UK manufacturing industry appears poised to rebound. The recent PMI report is clear testimony to manufacturing's improved prospects, and points to further progress in the months ahead. The index has risen 7 point from its post September 11 trough of 42.9. In its most recent monthly trends survey the CBI recorded the biggest rise in output optimism (over the previous three months) on record.
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UK Budget 2002...The Tax Man Cometh
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| Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown delivers his sixth annual budget to the House of Commons on Wednesday, April 17 at 14.30 GMT. The key focus is how much are taxes going to rise with both the Chancellor and the Prime Minister Tony Blair strongly hinted that revenue will have to rise to in order to pay for increased spending on the National Health Service.
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BoE In No Hurry to Hike Rates
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| The Bank of England has left interest rates unchanged at 4.0% since November of last year. In easing monetary policy in 2001 the BoE’s main objective was to protect the domestic economy from the global downturn. In this regard, data released over the last month indicate that the recovery in the global economy is gaining momentum.
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Will the BoE Be The First to Change Course
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| As signs of a global recovery begin to intensify the debate is now firmly centered around the timing of interest rates hikes. Given current conditions we believe that the Bank of England will be the first leading central bank to move to a tightening mode.
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BoE Engineers Soft Landing
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| Since the Bank of England first reduced interest rates in February of this year, it has campaigned actively to protect the UK economy from the global slowdown, cutting the base rate by a cumulative 2.0% to 4.0%.
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UK Economy Stays Resilient
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| The provisional estimate for third-quarter GDP growth of 0.6% on the quarter came in just above expectations of a 0.5% rise, and represents a robust 2.2% rise on the year.
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BoE Stays in Easing Mode
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| Any notion that the MPC’s decision not to be as aggressive as the ECB and the Fed in September signalled a more hawkish stance from the Bank of England has proved wide of the mark.
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Blair Puts EMU Back on Agenda For Sterling
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| Following the events of the 11 September the issue of sterling joining EMU was pushed to the background. However, the tone of the Prime Minster’s comments at the Labour Party Conference suggest that membership is still very much on the agenda.
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Poor Manufacturing Numbers Not Enough For a Move to 4.75%
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| This week’s Bank of England monetary policy meeting coincided with the news that, after a modest rebound of 0.3% (m-on-m) in June, UK manufacturing output fell by 0.9% in July.
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BoE on Hold For Now
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| The Bank of England holds its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday and Thursday of this week. Rates were unexpectedly cut by 0.25% at the August meeting, reducing the base rate to 5.00%.
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UK Data Justify MPC Uncertainty
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| The minutes of the last Bank of England policy gathering indicate that the meeting was a difficult one. It ended in a 6-3 vote in favour of another 0.25% cut but members views ranged from a 0.50% cut to no change at all.
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UK GDP Show Further Easing in Economic Activity
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| According to preliminary estimates UK economic activity slowed considerably in the three months to June. GDP increased by 0.3% to give a year-on-year growth rate of 2.1%. Both numbers were in line with expectations but constitute the weakest growth rate for two and a half years. In the previous three months, the economy expanded by 0.5%, or 2.7% y-on-y.
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Outlook for UK Interest Rates
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| Last week the Bank of England elected to leave official rates unchanged for the second month running. This was in line with our expectations and the market consensus and as such did not evoke much reaction. The key question is where the BoE goes from here.
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UK GDP Data Justify Lower Rates
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| UK economic growth slowed in the first quarter of this year with industrial output and construction estimated to have decelerated while growth in the services sector growth held up.
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UK BUDGET SPECIAL
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| Gordon Brown's fifth budget package contained a raft of election winning measures but was also aimed at keeping the economy on an even keel.
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UK Data Support A Gradual Easing Bias
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| After two years of keeping the official interest rates at 6.00% the Bank of England announced a 0.25% reduction in the base rate today. No statement of explanation accompanied the announcement but next week’s Quarterly Inflation Report should provide plenty of opportunity to explain the reasoning behind the move.
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Bank of England Holds Fire as Sterling Rises
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| The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at May's policy meeting. The vote was likely to have been a tight one with the MPC's hawks finding plently of reasons for raising rates. However, the case is not as clear cut as previously thought
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